US Spirits Market Trends: Volume Growth Slows Amid Economic Challenges

According to the latest CITI analysis featured in Mark Brown’s Industry Newsletter, the US spirits market is feeling the effects of macroeconomic weakness and tougher year-over-year comparisons.

Growth Loses Momentum

In the four weeks ending October 4, total US spirits volume growth reached +5.9%, down from +7.2% over the previous 12 weeks. The slowdown comes as consumer spending softens and inflation pressures persist.

Category Performance: Declines Dominate

The report shows that nearly all major categories experienced volume declines:

• Tequila fell -2.5%, extending its previous dip of -2.6%.
• Cognac dropped -11%, compared to -10% in the last reporting period.
• Whiskey and vodka saw sharper declines at -6.1% and -4.9%, respectively.
• Gin decreased -9.0%, and rum fell -8.8%, marking a continued downward trend.

In contrast, cordials edged up +0.7%, while prepared cocktails continued to outperform, growing +29%, nearly matching the previous period’s impressive +29.2% surge.

Price and Sales Impact

The overall price/mix dropped -6.1%, contributing to a -0.6% fall in total dollar sales over the four-week period. This contrasts with a +1.5% gain last month and a +0.9% rise over the past 12 weeks.

Brand-Specific Insights

Diageo

Diageo’s sales decreased -8.2% in the latest four weeks, compared with -5.5% over 12 weeks. Volumes dropped -8.4%, while price/mix held steady at +0.1%. The company’s value share fell -132bps. CITI estimates that US spirits contribute over 50% of Diageo’s EBIT.

Pernod Ricard

Pernod Ricard’s sales declined -7.4% for the month and -7.0% for the last 12 weeks. Volumes slipped -9.2%, offset slightly by a +2.0% gain in price/mix. Value share fell -37bps. CITI estimates that the US spirits market accounts for roughly 25% of the group’s EBIT.

Campari

Campari’s sales fell -5.5% in October, widening from -2.0% the previous month. Volumes declined -2.5%, and price/mix dropped -3.1%. Value share dipped -14bps. CITI estimates that US spirits represent about 30% of Campari’s EBIT.

Rémy Cointreau

Rémy Cointreau’s monthly sales declined -6.6%, following a -3.3% drop in the prior four weeks. Volumes were down -4.9%, and price/mix decreased -1.7%. Value share fell -4bps. US spirits sales contribute around 40% of Rémy’s EBIT.

Data Scope and Limitations

CITI notes that the Nielsen AOC+C dataset remains a reliable indicator of US spirits market trends, offering insight into competitive dynamics. However, it primarily covers off-premise channels (about 50%) and excludes data from liquor stores, on-premise venues, control states, and e-commerce. Overall, Nielsen data represents roughly 20–30% of the total US spirits market.

Stay Updated

Explore, learn, and enjoy! Join our community and stay updated with the best of rum.

Source of Information

Mark Brown Industry Update — US Spirits Nielsen Data: Volume deceleration driven by macro weakness and tougher comps.

The image of the article is courtesy of ©Nejron via Canva.com