US Spirits De-premiumization Tracker Signals Mixed Start to 2026

Jefferies has refreshed its US Spirits De-premiumization Tracker for the four weeks ending January 24, describing the month as “rather damp.” The data points to continued pressure across beverage alcohol, even as certain categories show early signs of recovery.

RTDs remain the standout. According to Jefferies, the segment gained 382 basis points of market share versus last year (compared with 333bps in November), though that shift continues to weigh on overall price/mix. ABI’s Cutwater once again drove the largest share of category growth.

More broadly, Jefferies argues that US beverage alcohol remains in correction mode and “is yet to see a positive turn.”

Industry Trends in the US Spirits De-premiumization Tracker

US distilled spirits continue to underperform their long-term trend. Nielsen data cited by Jefferies shows industry value declining around 7%. By comparison, DISCUS data for 2025 shows volumes (excluding RTDs and cocktails) down 2.7% and value down 4.0%.

Downtrading remains visible; however, January data reveals a notable uptick in premiumization across several categories. Jefferies cautions that Nielsen data can be volatile, noting that several consumer staples categories posted unusually strong results. As a result, the firm advises against extrapolating January trends across the full year.

27 Headwinds Weigh on Beverage Alcohol

In its report, Jefferies identifies 27 headwinds affecting beverage alcohol. The firm highlights four major themes:

1. Macro pressure: Alcohol represents the most discretionary segment within staples and faces wallet squeeze pressures.
2. Health and moderation: Post-COVID moderation trends have intensified, while GLP-1 drugs introduce additional uncertainty.
3. Shifting social relevance: Consumers may be redefining alcohol’s role, with marijuana providing growing competition.
4. Marketing and innovation: The industry lacks recent downturn experience, raising questions about whether brand strategies must evolve.

Together, these forces continue to shape category performance in early 2026.

Premiumization Re-emerges Across Categories

Despite ongoing downtrading, January data shows improving price/mix trends in most major spirits categories.

Brandy declined further to -0.8% (from -0.6%). However, several segments improved meaningfully:

• Tequila: -0.5% (from -2.0%)
• Gin: +2.6% (from +1.2%)
• Vodka: -0.1% (from -0.7%)
• Rum: +0.7% (from +0.5%)
• Bourbon: +0.7% (from +0.2%)
• Canadian whisky: -0.3% (from -1.6%)
• Cognac: -2.2% (from -2.5%)
• Scotch: +3.1% (from flat)

Jefferies notes that this “sharp step-up in premiumization” stands out relative to recent months.