Beverage Sales Trends Show Early Stabilization Signals

According to TD Cowen, US beverage sales continue to face pressure, but recent data suggests modest improvement across several key categories. Total beverage sales declined 0.1% over the last four weeks (L4W) and 0.3% over the last 12 weeks (L12W) ending November 29, compared with +0.7% over the last 52 weeks (L52W).

In short, the correction isn’t over, but momentum has stopped getting worse.

Energy Drinks Lead Category Resilience

Energy drinks remain one of the strongest performers in the market. TD Cowen reports 13.5% growth in L4W and 13.2% in L12W, slightly above the 12.5% L52W trend.

Celsius continues to drive expansion, though its pace moderated. Total Celsius sales rose 19.9% in L4W and 25.2% in L12W, with core Celsius up 11.6% / 13.5%. Meanwhile, Alani Nu posted standout growth at 54.6% / 74.7%, and Monster advanced 12.5% / 10.9%.
All figures and brand performance insights are attributed to TD Cowen.

CSDs Gain Ground Despite Volume Pressure

Carbonated soft drinks (CSDs) delivered 3.3% growth in L4W and 2.5% in L12W, even as volumes declined 4.4% / 6.2%. TD Cowen notes that pricing continues to do the heavy lifting.

Coca-Cola’s US business grew 5.2% / 3.8%, with CSDs up 5.6% / 3.7%. Keurig Dr Pepper expanded 2.0% / 1.4%, while its single-serve coffee segment jumped 8.8% / 5.3%. PepsiCo, although still negative, improved to -0.9% / -1.8%, according to TD Cowen’s analysis.

Spirits Remain Under Pressure

Spirits continue to lag the broader beverage landscape. TD Cowen reports total spirits sales down 4.7% in L4W and 3.3% in L12W, worsening to -7.6% / -6.4% when excluding ready-to-drink cocktails.

Diageo underperformed the category, with sales down 11.2% / 9.6% and a 159-basis-point share loss over L12W. TD Cowen attributes this weakness to sustained pressure on premium spirits demand.

Beer Shows Incremental Improvement

Beer sales declined 4.5% / 4.9%, an improvement versus the -3.2% L52W trend. TD Cowen highlights resilience at Anheuser-Busch InBev, where sales fell just 0.5% / 1.2%, supported by Michelob Ultra and Busch Light.

Constellation Brands posted declines of 2.7% / 3.0%, with beer volumes down 4.1% in fiscal Q3. TD Cowen notes that investors are closely watching whether trends rebound as Constellation cycles prior Hispanic consumer softness.

Beyond Beer and Non-Alcoholic Categories Gain Relevance

“Beyond Beer” offerings grew 4.5% / 4.0%, outperforming the 3.3% L52W pace. Non-alcoholic alcohol surged 18.0% / 17.5%, reinforcing its role as a structural growth category. TD Cowen estimates Beyond Beer at $13.6B in L52W sales and non-alcoholic alcohol at $1.0B.

Other Beverage Segments at a Glance

Sports drinks advanced 5.7% / 2.1%, bottled water rose 2.3% / 1.0%, and single-serve ground coffee increased 7.2% / 8.3%, driven primarily by pricing.

Wine (excluding RTDs) continued to struggle, declining 7.5% / 6.9%, per TD Cowen.

Bottom Line

TD Cowen’s latest tracking suggests the US beverage market may be finding its footing. While spirits, beer, and wine remain under pressure, energy drinks, CSD pricing, non-alcoholic options, and alternative alcohol formats offer pockets of resilience. The reset isn’t finished—but the free fall has slowed.

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Source of Information

TD Cowen Article — Beverage Tracking Update: Slight Improvement Across Multiple Categories, written by staff

The image of the article is courtesy of © Grisha Bruev via Canva.com