IWSR Online Alcohol Sales Forecast Adjusted as Growth Slows
IWSR has revised its outlook for global e-commerce after online alcohol sales underperformed in 2024. According to the IWSR E-commerce Strategic Study 2025, the channel recorded a 1% decline in value last year, marking its third consecutive annual drop. The analysis, cited by The Spirits Business, covers more than 85% of global online alcohol sales by value.
Crucially, IWSR attributes this weaker performance to the US and China, alongside broader macroeconomic pressure that reduced overall alcohol consumption.
Why the IWSR Online Alcohol Sales Forecast Changed
IWSR identified economic uncertainty and slowing demand in its two largest markets as the main drivers behind the downgrade. The study examined 16 markets in total, including core countries such as the US, China, the UK, and Australia, plus secondary markets like Canada, Mexico, and South Africa.
As a result, IWSR now expects online alcohol sales across these markets to grow at a 3% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) between 2024 and 2029.
Previously, the firm had projected far more aggressive growth, including forecasts that placed global online alcohol sales near US$40 billion by 2027. Those earlier estimates also included additional markets and national spirits categories, such as Chinese baijiu.
From Pandemic Boom to Post-COVID Correction
Online alcohol retail surged during the pandemic, when lockdowns reshaped buying behavior. Between 2019 and 2021, the sector expanded at a 35% CAGR. Growth then slowed sharply, reaching 5% between 2022 and 2023 before tipping into decline.
Despite this correction, IWSR expects online alcohol’s share of total beverage alcohol to hold steady at 3.5% in 2025, rising modestly to 3.8% by 2029.
Guy Wolfe, Head of E-commerce Insights at IWSR, told The Spirits Business that the channel has stabilized after post-pandemic normalization. He added that online alcohol retail continues to show greater resilience than physical stores, even as usage dipped slightly in 2025.
Markets Driving the IWSR Online Alcohol Sales Forecast
China, Brazil, and the US are expected to generate more than half of global online alcohol value growth through 2029. IWSR links this performance to mature e-commerce ecosystems and established consumer habits.
Over the forecast period, IWSR projects:
- China: 3% CAGR
- Brazil: 6% CAGR
- US: 2% CAGR
Meanwhile, countries such as Mexico, Canada, and Colombia are forecast to grow faster, albeit from smaller bases.
Category Winners: Beer, Spirits, and Whiskey
Beer is set to lead online alcohol growth, with IWSR forecasting a 6% CAGR from 2024 to 2029. Spirits should grow at 2% CAGR, while wine is expected to remain flat.
Within spirits, whiskey stands out for its strong online conversion rate. IWSR reports that 15%–17% of whiskey drinkers have purchased the category online. American whiskey, in particular, is expected to narrow the gap with Scotch, driven by domestic demand. IWSR forecasts American whiskey to grow at 3% CAGR, compared with 1% for Scotch.
How Channels Will Shape the IWSR Online Alcohol Sales Forecast
Looking ahead, IWSR expects omnichannel and on-demand platforms to drive most online growth. Wolfe noted that grocery retailers’ digital investment and value-seeking shoppers will support omnichannel expansion, while on-demand services benefit from convenience-led purchasing.
At the same time, IWSR predicts flat performance for direct-to-consumer sales and slight declines for online specialists. Marketplaces, reshaped by social commerce and Amazon, should post modest gains.
AI Begins to Influence Online Alcohol Shopping
Finally, IWSR consumer research shows that 16% of global shoppers used AI-powered recommendations during their most recent online purchase. Adoption remains highest among Gen Z and Millennials, particularly in the US and Brazil—an emerging signal of how digital discovery may evolve.
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Source of Information
The Spirits Business Article — IWSR downgrades global online alcohol sales forecast, written by Nicola Carruthers
The image of the article is courtesy of © Анастасия Янишевская via Canva.com
